http://news.yahoo.com/s/ynews/20091121/ts_ynews/ynews_ts992
If you've recently found yourself wondering, "What the heck is going on with the health care reform debate?", you're not alone. The American legislative process is unwieldy, and never more so than in the United States Senate. Now that the Senate voted Saturday to move its bill to a full debate, some big hurdles remain.
Because we think you may have some of the same questions we did, and the bill being discussed would constitute one of the most consequential reforms in a generation if passed, we thought we'd put together a quick primer on what to expect in the weeks to come.
So, what exactly happened Saturday?
Saturday night at 8 p.m. ET, Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid brought his proposed bill to the floor of the Senate for a procedural vote to kick off a full debate and amendment process. To get things started, he needed 60 votes for a "motion to proceed." He got them.
The big suspense was over whether or not the bill would be successfully filibustered by opponents who wanted to stop the bill from moving forward.
What the heck is a filibuster?
Saturday night's "motion to proceed" vote was the first time the process could be stopped by a filibuster. There are two more times remaining.
With a filibuster, Republicans can prevent a vote by extending debate indefinitely by, for example, reading Sarah Palin's new book over and over and over again and refusing to stop. To bypass a hypothetical "Going Rogue" loop, Harry Reid needs 60 senators to vote to end any filibuster. This is called a "cloture" vote.
After Saturday, opponents will get their next chance to filibuster when the Senate votes to end full debate and send the bill to its final phase.
Who would filibuster and why?
Excluding the outside possibility that Olympia Snowe would break ranks, all 40 Republicans would likely support a filibuster. So, to prevent Democrats from getting the 60 votes necessary to break one, only one Democrat or independent would need to defect.
The most likely suspects for this are independent Joe Lieberman and conservative Democrats Mary Landrieu, Ben Nelson, and Blanche Lincoln. Recent speculation has focused on Lincoln, who faces low approval numbers in conservative Arkansas and an upcoming re-election bid in 2010. Nelson and Landrieu are also both from conservative states, though neither is up for re-election in 2010. Lieberman is not up for re-election and is from more liberal Connecticut, but may be influenced by the large insurance industry presence in his state.
What happens if the Senate does pass a bill?
After weeks of speeches and amendments and filibuster threats, if the Senate passes a bill, it moves on to a "conference committee." Here, members of both the House and the Senate will negotiate over the final details while trying to merge the bill passed by the House with the bill passed by the Senate.
All the hot-button issues will be on the table. If the Senate passes a bill without a "Public Option" it will need to be debated again. Many House Democrats want the controversial Stupak Amendment, which bans funding or subsidies for any insurance plan that funds abortion, removed in conference.
If these issues are ironed out, the committee will create a "conference report," or final bill, that will need to be passed yet again by both the House and the Senate. Yet again this vote in the Senate can be filibustered, so any ''conference report'' will need the support of 60 senators one last time.
If the "conference report" is passed in both houses of Congress, it will be sent to President Obama's desk for his likely signature.
When will all of this be over?
Up until last week, few people thought that this process could be completed by the end of the year. But the Senate Democrat's bill recently received positive feedback from the Congressional Budget Office, the nonpartisan federal agency that advises Congress on financial matters. This has led some political observers to think that maybe, just maybe, Americans will know whether or not their country's health care system will be dramatically overhauled in time for the holidays.
-- Thomas Kelley and Brett Michael Dykes are contributors to the Yahoo! News blog
