http://www.nytimes.com/2009/10/11/business/economy/11banks.html
By ERIC DASH
Published: October 10, 2009
A year after Washington rescued the banks considered too big to fail, the ones deemed too small to save are approaching a grim milestone: the 100th bank failure of 2009.
In what has become a ritual, the Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation has swooped down on a handful of troubled lenders almost every Friday, seizing 98 since January alone and putting their assets into the hands of another bank.
While the parade of failures still represents a mere fraction of America’s small banks, it underscores a growing divide between them and large institutions like Goldman Sachs, JPMorgan Chase and U.S. Bancorp, which are slowly growing stronger as the economy improves.
Burdened by worsening commercial real estate loans, many small banks’ troubles are just beginning. Many analysts say that the now-toxic loans could sink hundreds of small lenders over the next few years and place a significant drag on the economy.
Already, the bank failures are placing enormous strain on the F.D.I.C. and its fund, which keeps depositors whole. Flush with more than $50 billion only two years ago, the fund recently fell into the red.
The prospect of more failures has led the F.D.I.C. to seek new ways to replenish the fund with higher and earlier payments by healthy banks, even after setting aside reserves for future losses.
The initial wave of failures has also unsettled some communities, even though most of the troubled institutions have been bought by other banks rather than shuttered. While deposits are safe thanks to federal insurance, the new buyers often do not have the same ties to local businesses as the former owners.
In some cases, they tighten lending and make it harder for longtime customers to obtain loans or favorable terms. In other cases, managers of the new bank make other changes, like ending offers for high-interest certificates of deposit and calling in certain lines of credit. In the longer term, some new owners are likely to close branches of the bank they have acquired in order to cut costs.
“In the near term, bank failures can be painful,” said Sheila C. Bair, the chairwoman of the Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation. But a bank that is teetering on collapse is not going to lend, she said, and “that’s not good for the economy.”
Regulators expect closures to ripple through hundreds of small banks over the next couple of years, especially in the Midwest and Southeast, where lenders have been hard hit by the recession.
These banks loaded their balance sheets with loans to home builders and other property developers to make up for lost business in credit card and mortgage lending that bigger competitors wrested away. They eased their lending standards during the boom years and made big bets on new housing developments, strip malls and office projects. Now, many of those deals are falling apart, and the lenders are scrambling to raise capital to cushion the losses.
“These banks were big enough that they could do loans that were fairly sizable,” said John R. Chrin, a former investment banker who is now an executive in residence at Lehigh University. “If they go bad, they are toast.”
The pace of bank failures is expected to accelerate in the coming months. There were just 25 bank failures in 2008 and just 10 in the five previous years. But in September alone, regulators took over 11 banks in nine states that were saddled with soured commercial real estate loans, from Corus Bank, a $7 billion construction lender based in Chicago that financed projects across the country, to Brickwell Community Bank in Woodbury, Minn., which had just a single branch and $72.6 million in assets.
Three others were taken over this month, including Warren Bank, a small lender just outside Detroit. Regulators swept into the offices on a recent Friday night after brokering a sale to Huntington Bancshares of Ohio, a regional bank with a big presence in Michigan.
By Saturday morning, Huntington had taken control of the bank’s computer systems, started reassuring depositors and placed vinyl signs with its name outside some of the Warren Bank branches.
Even though the process went smoothly, customers still found it unnerving.
“People expect companies to go out of business, not banks,” said James R. Fouts, the mayor of Warren, Mich., whose working class city of 140,000 has had a front row seat to the collapses of General Motors and Chrysler. “That is something that you expect to hear about in the Great Depression, and it further exacerbates the feeling that financially, the country is not yet in stable shape.”
The banking system may also be facing a long recovery. About $870 billion, or roughly half of the industry’s $1.8 trillion of commercial real estate loans, now sit on the balance sheets of small and medium-size banks like these, according to an analysis by Foresight Analytics, a research firm. For most of the banks, this represents the biggest and riskiest part of their loan portfolio, since they lack the trading streams and fee businesses of their larger rivals. And as a group, small banks have written off only a tiny percentage of the losses that analysts expect them to incur.
In fact, applying only the commercial real estate loss assumptions that federal regulators used during the stress tests for the big banks last spring, Foresight analysts estimated that as many as 581 small banks were at risk of collapse by 2011.
By contrast, commercial real estate losses put none of the nation’s 19 biggest banks, and only about 5 of the next 100 largest lenders, in jeopardy.
Even Citigroup, the biggest and most troubled of the banks, has a relatively small portion of its loans tied to commercial real estate and may begin to recover faster than other rivals.
Gerard Cassidy, a veteran banking analyst, said the problems call to mind the wave of small bank failures in Texas and New England two decades ago during the savings and loan crisis — only on a national scale.
Back then, regulators closed more than 700 lenders in those regions. Today, Mr. Cassidy projects that as many as 1,000 small banks will close over the next few years and that their losses will be more severe. “It’s a repeat on steroids,” he said.
But Ms. Bair said the savings-and-loan crisis far surpassed the current situation. “We aren’t anywhere close to that today, and based on current projections, I don’t think we will get near that pace,” she said.
Even if hundreds of banks collapsed, they would not threaten to bring the financial system to its knees.
Together, the 8,176 smallest banks control just 15 percent of the industry’s $13.3 trillion in assets. And thanks to the expansion of the government’s deposit insurance program, regulators also appear to have squelched the threat of bank runs that brought down IndyMac Bank and Washington Mutual last year.
Consumer deposits are now insured up to $250,000 per account, and the F.D.I.C. offers unlimited coverage on noninterest payroll accounts used by businesses.
“We’ve passed the panic stage,” said Frederick Cannon, the chief equity analyst at Keefe, Bruyette & Woods in New York.
What is more, community bank supporters say the bulk of their institutions will emerge from the crisis stronger. “The community banks are picking up market share,” said Camden R. Fine, the head of the Independent Community Bankers of America.
“People are angry with all the shenanigans on Wall Street,” he said. “They believe their money stays local when they put it in a community bank, rather than sent off to Never-Never land.”
